Spatial distribution and spatiotemporal clustering of AIDS notifications among men in Brazil

Spatial distribution and spatiotemporal clustering of AIDS notifications among men in Brazil, 2014–2023: an ecological study. Download PDF Abstract This study aimed to analyse the spatial distribution and spatiotemporal clustering of AIDS notifications among men in all 5570 Brazilian municipalities between 2014 and 2023. Using an ecological design, data on AIDS notifications among men (≥ 13 years) were retrieved from Brazil’s Notifiable Diseases Information System database.

Spatial analysis included global autocorrelation via Moran’s I and the identification of local clusters via the Local Indicators of Spatial Association applied to Empirical Bayes smoothed rates. Retrospective and prospective (active) space–time scan statistics were applied to detect clusters of elevated AIDS notification rates. The Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) method was used to assess differences in notification trends within and outside these clusters.

The global Moran’s I statistic indicated positive spatial autocorrelation for the entire period ( p < 0.01). High-high clusters were predominantly located in the North, Northeast and South Regions, whereas low-low clusters were concentrated in the interior of the Northeast and Southeast Regions. Twenty-seven retrospective clusters (maximum RR: 3.12; p < 0.01) were identified, with the highest relative risks observed in the North Region.

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