LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026: Ten critical questions as South Africa heads into high-stakes

JOHANNESBURG — With the ANC under intense pressure, the DA seeking gains and smaller parties eyeing roles as kingmakers, voters face a contest that could reshape municipal government. By Lunga Simelane and Naledi Mashishi 1 Nov 2026 0 A forest of election posters on poles in Pretoria, Gauteng. The 2026 municipal elections to elect councils for all district, metropolitan and local municipalities in each of the South Africa’s nine provinces will be held on 4 November 2026.

( With major battleground municipalities at stake and smaller parties positioned as kingmakers, the upcoming vote could fundamentally reshape the country’s local political landscape. We look at 10 big questions that will define the 4 November elections. How many voters might show up on polling day?

Data from the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) shows that the number of voters who turn up on polling day has steadily declined over the years from a high of 89.3% in 1999 to an all-time low of 58.6% in 2024. Polling data by eNCA and Mark Data published on 25 October predicts that just 48.8% of registered voters will turn up on election day. Polling data from market research company Ipsos showed that 47% of respondents felt that no political party ­represented their views, and 38% had no interest in politics or elections.

A low voter turnout often benefits the DA as it correlates with declining support for the ANC, indicating that disgruntled ANC voters are more likely to stay at home. Are we moving towards a two-party system or becoming even more fragmented? Polling data from Ipsos, News24, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and The Common Sense has indicated that although support for the ANC will decline to between 22% and 32%, no other political party looks likely to get an outright majority.

Only the SRF poll predicts that the DA is likely to outpace the ANC and lead at 36%, up from a 19.87% result in the 2021 local government elections. Other polls put the DA slightly behind the ANC, with both around 30%.

Dr Harlan Cloete, local governance and public leadership research fellow at the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies at the University of the Free State, says South Africa’s political system is becoming more fragmented. This is because breakaway parties like the MK party and the EFF, as well as the SACP running independently for the first time, are likely to capture more of the ANC’s support base.

Map: Vecteezy; Information sources: The 2021 municipal election results; Mistra’s Coalitions Barometer and ACCORD’s Coalitions Tracker. Could the ANC lose control of Gauteng metros?

Dissatisfaction over service delivery and growing opposition competition threaten the ANC with further losses in major municipalities. Persistent water shortages, power outages, sewage spills and road decay dominate voter concerns, with Johannesburg and Tshwane’s water crises bringing service delivery failures into sharp focus.

In 2016, the ANC lost outright majorities in Gauteng’s metros and further declined in 2021, securing only 33.6% in Johannesburg, 34.31% in Tshwane and 38.19% in Ekurhuleni. DA-led coalitions ruled the three ­metros after 2021, but they were all replaced by ANC-led coalitions.

Polling highlights continued strain. October’s SRF poll put national ANC support at 32%, while eNCA-MarkData recorded 21.8% in Johannesburg against the DA’s 35%.

The ANC’s prospects are further complicated by the party delaying mayoral announcements until after the elections, alongside a legal battle with the IEC in which a Constitutional Court ruling eventually restored 181 excluded candidates in six municipalities. These setbacks come against a backdrop of sustained criticism of the ANC’s record in government.

With voter dissatisfaction high, the ANC will probably become increasingly reliant on coalitions to continue to govern. Will the EFF’s growth plateau, or can it rebuild its electoral support?

The EFF faces a tough test after its vote share fell from 10.8% in 2019 to 9.52% in 2024. Recent polling shows mixed recovery: October’s The Common Sense and SRF poll placed it at 8%, whereas an earlier Ipsos survey recorded 11%.