Mortality risks of seasonal temperature anomalies and the unrecognized risk of winter warmth: a nationwide case-time series

Mortality risks of seasonal temperature anomalies and the unrecognized risk of winter warmth: a nationwide case-time series. Download PDF Abstract Most studies of temperature-related health risks rely on observed temperature referenced to the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which may overlook health effects arising from deviations from long-term climatic norms to which populations are seasonally adapted. We investigated whether such deviations, defined as deviation from climate normal temperature (DCNT), are associated with daily mortality in Korea.

We used daily counts of total (ICD-10: A00–Y89), cardiovascular (I00–I99), and respiratory (J00–J99) mortality across Korea from 2010 to 2021. DCNT was calculated as the difference between observed daily mean temperature and 30-year climatological normals. Temperature anomalies were classified by intensity (moderate, extreme) and persistence (1–3 consecutive days).

Season-specific associations were estimated using case time-series models with distributed lag non-linear functions, jointly modelling observed temperature and DCNT. Moderate warm anomalies were associated with increased mortality in both summer and winter, whereas cold anomalies showed weaker and less consistent associations. The strongest associations were observed for wintertime warm anomalies.

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